A senior non-partisan political insider predicts that Democrats will face a tough challenge in the 2024 elections as they try to maintain a razor-thin edge in holding four crucial Senate seats.
The rankings of the first Senate race of the new cycle at the Sabato Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics are the latest to indicate a difficult road ahead for Democrats in electoral handicaps.
Democrats flipped a GOP Senate seat in Pennsylvania in November’s midterm elections, and currently hold a 51-49 majority in the chamber — which includes three independent senators headed by the Democratic conference.
But Republicans are empowered by a very favorable Senate map in 2024, with Democrats defending 23 of the 34 seats up for election. Three of those seats are in red states that former President Donald Trump easily carried over President Biden in 2020: Ohio, West Virginia and Montana. The five other Democratic seats carried by Biden in the 2020 presidential election are in key states: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Michigan, longtime Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow has announced she will retire after next year rather than seek re-election.
In the year The battle for the Senate heats up in 2024, as the GOP looks to win back majorsY
Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) gestures as he speaks to reporters in the Hart Senate Office Building on August 01, 2022 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
(Anna Cashier/Getty Images)
According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, three Democratic-held seats are up for grabs, while one leans Republican.
“Democrats are playing more defensive than Republicans,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “With currently Democratic seats, West Virginia starts as a clear Republican takeover opportunity, with Arizona, Montana and Ohio as toss-ups.”
And Condick said, “The GOP doesn’t have a toss up or lean Republican seats to defend at the gate.”
Here are four Democratic senators facing challenging re-election.
Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia.
Manchin, a former governor and moderate Democrat from a once-Democratic-leaning state that has turned deeply red in recent cycles, has yet to announce whether he will seek another term next year. Manchin In 2018, he won re-election by three points, two years after then-President Donald Trump had nearly 40 points. Sabato’s crystal ball ranks this race as Republican.
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“It’s very unusual for us to start a position of power as dogs, but we think it’s important in this case,” Kondic emphasized.
Montana’s Sean John challenger
Montana, a farmer, three-term senator and the only Democrat to hold statewide office in the red state of Montana, has not yet said whether he will run for re-election in 2024.
Senator John Tester, Democrat of Montana, speaks during a hearing of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on Wednesday, June 22, 2022, in Washington, DC.
(Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Trump won Montana by 16 points in 2020, and Sabato’s crystal ball ranked this race as a tie.
Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown
Brown, who has nearly half a century in elected state and federal office, said he will run for a fourth six-year term in the Senate next year.
Take two: Dolan, a Republican, launched his second straight Senate run in Ohio.
Ohio, once a premier general election battleground state, has turned red in recent cycles, and this race also has a toss-up.
“Brown should be able to get at least some cross-party support, but is that enough of a GOP margin to win 8 points for president (Trump’s margin in both 2016 and 2020)?” Condic wrote.
Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, Treasury Secretary Saul Omarwa questions the nominee as she testifies before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee during a hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, November 18, 2021. (Photo by Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)
(Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)
Republicans are targeting all three senators. Fox News reported earlier this month that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) launched a “retire or fire” digital campaign targeting Manchin, Tester and Brown, tying them to President Biden.
Arizona Senator Kirsten Sinema
Sinema, a moderate Democratic lawmaker, announced last month that she was leaving the party and registering as an independent. Cinema has yet to announce whether it will seek another time slot in 2024.
Sen. Kirsten Sinema, D-Ariz., speaks at a news conference after the Senate passed the Respect for Marriage Act at the Capitol Building in Washington, DC, November 29, 2022.
(Anna Cashier/Getty Images)
But she already faces a challenge from the left, with progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego making a bid for the Democratic Senate nomination earlier this month in a key battleground state in the Southwest.
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“Given the possibility of a true 3-way race, Arizona’s situation is impressive,” Kondik said.