Political polls: Prime Minister Chris Hipkins’ and Labour’s popularity soar

New Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has given Labor an early boost in the polls, rising by five points to 38 per cent in the 1News Kantar poll and National-Fair.

Another poll by Newshub-Reid Research showed Hipkins’ popularity with the public fell, with Labor down almost 6 percentage points to 38 per cent and National down 4.1 points to 36.6 per cent.

In a 1 News Kantar poll, Hipkins also went straight from zero to 23 per cent as preferred Prime Minister – while Jacinda Ardern dropped immediately to five per cent. As prime minister-elect, Luxon dropped slightly to 22 percent.

That National and Labor – and Hipkins and Luxon – are almost level in the polls.

“While I am encouraged by the election results, we still have a lot of work to do,” Hipkins told 1News.

Labor is at 38 per cent – up five points since the end of last November – while nationally it is down one to 37 per cent.

Law dropped to 10 per cent (down 1), Green Party to 7 per cent (down 2) and NZ First to 2 per cent (down 2). Tepati Maori was at 1 per cent.

The National Party/Legislation won 60 seats in Parliament and Labor and the Greens 58, while the Maori Party won two seats. If Tepati Maori sided with Labour, that parliament could be hung.

And there was a new face in the prime ministerial ranks: Labour’s Kerry Allan came in at 1 per cent.

The 1 News Kantar poll of 1,000 eligible voters was carried out from last Wednesday, when Hipkins was sworn in as prime minister, until Sunday night, flooding into Auckland. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

Hipkins received high approval ratings in his first appearance — 46 percent said they approved of the way he was doing the job, while only 10 percent disapproved: a net approval rating of +36.

However, a whopping 45 percent said they still don’t know or aren’t sure.

Luxon’s net approval rating is +9 – 43 percent approve, 34 percent disapprove and 23 percent don’t know.

Luxon told Newstalk ZB that the raise for Hipkins was not unexpected.

“New leaders always go through ups and downs and we’ve seen it happen in the past and especially when they hold the office of prime minister.”

He dismissed any suggestion that he was upset or worried about the election, saying his party was “not too upset” about the result.

Hipkins considered it “a little unbelievable” that Luxon was now a senior minister in a cost-of-living government that was promoting his focus on the economy.

Actu’s David Seymour told 1News that Hipkins is more of the same for a worker. Greens co-leader Marama Davidson told Hipkins she expected the raise.

Te Pati Maori co-leader Rawiri Waititi has promised there will be no hung parliament and his party will decide who becomes the next government.

In a Newshub Reed-Research poll, the Green Party was down 1.4 points at 8.8 percent. The bill rose 0.7 points to 10.7 percent.

Tepati Maori was down 1.8 per cent and New Zealand First was down 1.1 points to 2.2 per cent. The Opportunities Party rose 0.3 points to 1.5 percent.

On those results, National gets 46 seats and Act 14. Labor has 48 seats, the Greens 10 and Tepati Māori could contribute two seats if they move left. This means that both parties have 60 seats each, resulting in a hung parliament.

The election ran from Sunday, January 22, when Hipkins was confirmed as the new Labor leader and Prime Minister, until Friday night.

Hipkins held the first prime minister’s share with 19.6 percent, while Luxon dropped 2.7 points to 18.8 percent.

Jacinda Ardern was on 29.9 percent in the latest poll, and Luxon was on 21.5 percent.

When asked if they trusted the leaders of the major party, 52.9 percent of respondents said they trusted Hipkins, while 26.9 percent said they did not.

For Luxon, only 36.9 percent believed it, while 43.8 percent did not believe it.

“He’s encouraged by the early signs of support,” Hipkins told Newshub.

He said he was there to “win”, but until the election, he focused on giving leadership to the country.

Act leader David Seymour said it would be an “exciting choice”.

“You have Chris with Chris. Chris-cross, Chris-cross”.

According to Luxon, the results are “not unexpected” because new leaders are often getting “amazing” results in the polls. He said that we have a long way to go until the election.

The vote comes as Hipkins prepares to announce more government support for flood-affected Aucklanders after a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, as well as his rejoinder.

The most recent polls from both outfits indicate that National and Law can manage together, with Labor lagging behind.

A 1News Kantar poll published on December 5 showed National at 38 percent, down 1 percentage point, and Labor at 33 percent, down 1 point.

Law rose 2 points to 11 percent. The Green Party was stable at 9 percent.

On these numbers, National has 49 seats and the Act 15 – satisfying the 61 seats needed to form a government.

In the year A Newshub-Reid poll published on November 6 put National at 40.7 per cent, down 0.2 points, and Labor at 32.3 per cent, down 5.9 points, the lowest result since Ardern became Labor leader in 2017.

Law is up 10 percent, up 3.6 points, with the Greens at 9.5 percent, up 1.1 points.

After visiting Auckland on Saturday, Hipkins spent Sunday and Monday reviewing his reforms and speeches on how government support should go to Auckland businesses and people and how it should be delivered.

A spokesman for Hipkins said recent flooding in Auckland may delay the announcement of the change, but the prime minister is expected to discuss it at a post-Cabinet press conference on Tuesday.

It followed a meeting on Sunday with Finance Minister Grant Robertson, Economic Development Minister Stuart Nash, Mayor Wayne Brown and Auckland Business Chamber chief executive Simon Bridges.

Afterward, Bridges tweeted that funding for flood-affected businesses had been discussed and that the delivery vehicle would be the Mayor’s Relief Fund.

The necessary flexibility allows it to respond – and the main challenges businesses face are climate damage, insurance claims and loss of income, he said. The demand from dealers makes it difficult to repair many quickly, he said.

He pointed out that it is a problem not only for the government but also for insurance companies and banks to solve the problem.