Ever since the Chicago Bears “acquired” the number one pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, all Bears fans have done is talk about the odds of a trade falling through. Having been involved in several draft day trades, I know firsthand that it is a process that takes some time to develop.
Until recently, trades to move up in the draft didn’t happen that early or on draft day itself. It changed in both 2016 and 2021.
In the year In 2016, there were actually three trades for two clubs to prepare themselves to draft a quarterback. In the year On March 9, 2016, the Philadelphia Eagles traded with the Miami Dolphins and moved from No. 13 to No. 9 in the draft order. The Eagles traded 13 picks and two players to complete that trade. About a month later, they put themselves out of business to make another move.
That same year, he was the Los Angeles Rams’ top quarterback pick and moved from No. 15 to first overall on April 14th, which was two weeks before the 2016 draft. The Rams gave up their first round pick, two second round picks, a third round pick, and a first and third round pick in 2017 to go from 15 to one.
Five days later, on April 19, the Eagles made their second trade of the draft, moving the recently acquired 8th overall pick to Cleveland. That assured the Eagles they could draft one of the top two quarterbacks in Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. To move from eight to two, the Eagles had to give up their eighth pick, third and fourth round picks, as well as their 2017 first round pick and 2018 second round pick.
The cost to move up was high because of how far both the Rams and Eagles had to move. In the Rams’ case, it was almost a 2000-point move using the chart, and because they gave up draft assets in subsequent years, they had to pay a small premium.
With the Eagles trading eight to two, the point difference was 1600 points. Again part of the return was in future years so they had to pay a premium to do the business.
If neither team wanted a quarterback, those trades wouldn’t have been made. In other years, trades were made on the draft date or the date of offer. In the year When I was with the Bears in 2003, we had the fourth pick in the draft. A day before the draft, we got a call from the New York Jets, who are trying to get that fourth overall pick. The Jets had two first-round picks that year (Nos. 13 and 22) and gave us those two picks and their fourth-round pick.
Our pick was 1400 points, and the three picks the Jets gave us were worth a total of about 2050 points, so we came out ahead of the deal.
In other recent big trades involving the Bears, the trades took place on draft day. In the year In 2017, the Bears moved from number three to number two, and San Francisco was on the clock. In the year In 2021, when the Bears moved down from 20 to 11 to select Justin Fields, that was done while the Giants were on the clock. Bears general manager at the time, Ryan Pace, then didn’t call the Giants until the morning of the draft. In the 2017 trade, Pace started talks with the 49ers a week before the draft.
That brings us to 2023. Almost all Bears fans want the Bears to move down from the first overall pick. There’s a good chance a trade can and will be made, but it’s not a lock and could happen for at least a couple of months.
Why is it expected? Several things must happen before any business discussion can take place. That includes veteran quarterbacks, not just potential draft-eligible quarterbacks.
Starting today, several veteran quarterbacks could be on the market in the coming weeks. They include Tom Brady, Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo. Where those quarterly returns end up will affect the trading market for draft quarterly returns.
Then there is the Aaron Rodgers situation, and who knows what will happen there. Will Green Bay really trade him, and if so, to which club?
Several clubs are interested in the quarterback. The Raiders are going to move Carr, but who will replace him? The Washington Chiefs have been playing with journeyman quarterbacks for the past few seasons and need to find a reliable player at the position.
The New York Jets used the second overall pick on Zach Wilson in 2021, and he’s been a bust to this day. Do you trade for a veteran or draft another quarterback? Houston and Indianapolis, who hold the second and fourth picks, both have big quarterback needs, and the thought process goes with a rookie, not a veteran. Other clubs with strong interest are Carolina and New Orleans.
Many clubs interested in this would make trade scenarios easier, but still, not all the data on draft-eligible quarterbacks is in yet. But most importantly, neither Indianapolis nor Houston have hired head coaches yet. After hiring a head coach and continuing with the coordinators, we’ll start to see what kind of offensive philosophy those clubs will have. This could tell which quarterback fits their scheme better.
Draft boards don’t start building before the combine, but boards are very fluid based on the results of many things at the Combine, Pro Days and individual workouts.
I’m in Vegas as I write this so I’m betting on when the trade will happen, the first draft is a week away. That gives the participating clubs plenty of time to prepare their boards and decide how to evaluate quarterbacks. It would help the Bears if both Houston and Indianapolis were looking for the same player. That could make things interesting.