Let’s not waste time with a long introduction. It’s NFL Championship Sunday and the first game has begun. In the NFC Championship, the No. 1 seed and NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles will play against the No. 2 seed and NFC West champion San Francisco 49ers.
These would make them the two best teams in the conference for most of the season, and the right to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Before we break down the match, here’s how to watch the match.
How to look
day – Sunday, January 29 | Time: 3 pm ET
Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
TV: fox | Stream fuboTV (try free)
Opportunities: Eagles -2.5, O/U 46 (provided by Caesars Sportsbook)
Featured game | Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers
When the 49ers have the ball
Let’s start by talking about Brock Purdy because how he handles Philadelphia’s pass rush could be the highlight of this game.
Prior to last week’s game against the Cowboys, Purdy had dropped 177 passes since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13. He completed 110-of-161 passes (68.3%) for 1,308 yards (8.12 per attempt). , 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He was sacked 11 times, and faced pressure at exactly the league average rate (32.8% vs. 32.6%). Dallas’ rush was able to get after Purdy regularly last week (48.5% pressure rate, per tab media), and even though Purdy was sacked just twice and not picked off (although he did have one interception), his efficiency was high (7.38 yards per attempt).
During the regular season, the Cowboys were the league’s best team in receiving pressure (43.3% pass rush), but the Eagles were right behind them in second (38.4%). And the Eagles were much better at converting pressures into sacks: 11.2% of Philly’s pressures resulted in a quarterback (first in the NFL) compared to 8.9% of Dallas’ pressures (second). This difference could be incredibly meaningful in this matchup.
The Eagles can throw more bodies to their pass rush than the Cowboys can. Jonathan Gannon rotates through Hasson Reddick, Josh Laub, Brandon Graham and Robert Quinn, bringing (mostly) Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave under center. San Francisco has a conundrum in Trent Williams on the left side of the line, but Mike McGlinchey could be vulnerable on the right side, and guards Aaron Banks and Spencer Burford are better in run blocking than in pass protection.
Of course, Kyle Shanahan is probably the premier offensive schemer in the league right now, and that’s no doubt the case for Purdy. Shanahan has plenty of tools to create wide throwing lanes: 9.4% of Purdy’s passes this season have been thrown in a tight window, good for the second-lowest rate in the NFL, according to NFL.com Next Gen Stats. Those wideouts often give the likes of Debo Samuels, Brandon Ayuck, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey plenty of room to run with the ball, which is why Purdy ranks third in the NFL in yards behind Gardopolo and Patrick Mahomes. (6.45)
Shanahan figures to move Samuels and Ayuck around the formation to avoid buying into Darius Slay or James Bradberry, but the Eagles’ expected slot cornerback Avonte Maddox could make that strategy a little less. While Maddox has been out this season, Philadelphia is ranked 27th in passing success by the Stick Media and the first time Maddox has been on the field. Bringing him back into the fold should make a big difference.
We know San Francisco’s offense is designed to attack the middle of the field, and it’s likely that Shanahan, Purdy and co. (Kittle should be heavily mentioned here.) Much of the midfield’s passing game is based on a play-action offense, but Philly ranks first in the EPA in play-action passes this season. Opponents are averaging 6.56 yards completing 59.7% of their passes while throwing six touchdowns against five interceptions. The 49ers’ game-action passing attack is very different from the standard one around the league, but there’s reason to believe Philly is better equipped to deal with it than most opponents.
For all of these reasons, the Niners will likely try to fight this battle in the running game. Philadelphia has been much better against the pass (first in DVOA outside of the football) than against the run (21st) this season, though the Eagles have been better in that department when they could use at least one of Jordan Davis and/or Linval Joseph. San Francisco’s rushing attack will test teams with both diversity and misdirection. It’s not just outside zone after outside zone after outside zone. The 49ers now run all kinds of schemes, and give the ball to a different set of players. Depending on where a Samuel or McCaffrey or Ayuck or Kyle Juszczyk is lined up, they force opponents to make their intentions known and then use those intentions against them.
Philadelphia’s defense doesn’t have the speed of the Dallas unit San Francisco faced last week (there are far fewer players than Micah Parsons, after all), so the Eagles may be a little more vulnerable to perimeter runs. They didn’t see much success in the divisional round. The Niners will use McCaffrey, Samuels or Elijah Mitchell (if he plays) on those runs, and each can hurt the defense in different ways.
When the Eagles have the ball
The best thing about Philadelphia’s offense this season is that it has shown an amazing ability to shape up to attack an opponent’s specific weaknesses. Bad at running? The Eagles hit the rock all day, as they did in two separate games against the Giants, where they rushed for over 250 yards, and an estimated 363 yards against the Packers. Is he weak on the pass? They light you up through the air, just like when running back Jalen Hurts had 19 rushing attempts in 39 passes against the Titans, and torched them for 380 yards and three scores.
The 49ers defense is pretty good at everything. The Niners finished the regular season second in rushing defense DVOA, and fifth in the playoffs. They were first by EPA with dropback and first by EPA with rush testing. They had above-average pressures and sacks, ranked third in yards allowed before the meet and third in yards after the meet. They rarely allowed an explosive pass or run, and were arguably the best team in the NFL. They are incredibly well-coached, and in Nick Bosa, Eric Armstead, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, they have a few absolute pacers that can disrupt any opponent’s game plan.
So, where are the eagles to attack? It’s deep under the field for me. The 49ers were first in DVOA on short passes and only 24th in deep passes. The matchup between AJ Brown and Devonta Smith and Charvarius Ward and Demodore Lenoir is very important in this part of the tournament. When throwing at least 20 yards downfield, Hurts was 22 of 55 for 823 yards, 11 touchdowns and four interceptions during the regular season. Only two corners have allowed more completions on those throws this season than Lenoir, who has seven completions on 13 attempts for 231 yards and one touchdown.
Offensively this way, the 49ers have to design their defense and take those throws out of the playbook. They play a lot of double-top coverages: They were one of five teams that played at least 125 snaps from both Cover-2 and Cover-4 during the regular season. Sometimes their corners are pressed against the line of scrimmage but cover a quarter of the depth of the field. Teams don’t want to throw deep, and for the most part, teams don’t throw deep. Only 9.8% of opponent’s pass attempts traveled at least 20 yards in the air, the 10th-lowest rate in the league. However, when there were open spaces, the opposition was able to take advantage occasionally.
One of the biggest strides the Eagles have made offensively this year is their ability to attack in the middle of the field. He didn’t throw much last season, but the addition of AJ Brown and the opening of Dallas Goedert has been working there more often this season. But nobody is better than the Niners at picking up the middle because nobody else has Warner and Greenlaw. That means the way to attack is from outside. Again, that means going by Lenoir and (to a lesser extent) Ward passing down the field.
Perhaps the premier matchup of the entire weekend pits the NFL’s best offensive line against its best defensive line. Nick Bosa, Samson Ibukam, Charles Omenihu and Jordan Willis with Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson. Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw, Kevin Givens and TY McGill over Landon Dickerson, Jason Kelce and Isaac Seumalo. Philadelphia leaves the effort On an island More often than most teams in the NFL, that means there will be opportunities for Bosa to turn the corner and get to Hearts … if he can keep it, that is.